ASML Holding (ASML)
Sole maker of EUV lithography machines. Effective monopoly on advanced-node tools.
- Ticker: ASML
- Sector: fab equipment (lithography)
ASML Holding (ASML) is a tracked supply-chain name in the data-center buildout in the fab equipment sector. Data Center Index tracks ASML Holding's capex history, project wins, and supplier exposure across the AI infrastructure buildout, refreshed daily from SEC filings and project announcements.
ASML Holding data center thesis
ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography, which means every leading-edge AI chip (Blackwell, MI400, TPU v6, HBM4) needs ASML tools to exist. FY25 revenue hit $35.3B with $12.2B operating income and 53% gross margin, and the $50.2B order backlog covers multiple years of TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel leading-edge capex.
Bull case
- $50.2B backlog at FY25 is up from $46.8B a year earlier despite the China cycle digestion, signaling that leading-edge logic and HBM customers are still pre-paying for EUV slot allocation 18-24 months out.
- HBM4 and 2nm/A14 logic ramps both require EUV-intensive process steps; ASML captures incremental tool revenue per node every time a customer pushes pitch density, which is the only way to keep up with AI compute demand.
- Effective monopoly on High-NA EUV gives ASML the only roadmap that takes leading-edge below 2nm; TSMC, Samsung, and Intel will all buy the same machines because there is no alternative.
Bear case
- China memory and mature-node restrictions cap roughly 25-30% of historical bookings; any further export rule tightening compresses the run-rate before the leading-edge mix can fully offset.
- Cycle digestion risk: leading-edge customers can push out tool deliveries when capacity utilization drops, and a single TSMC or Intel CapEx reset would visibly slow ASML revenue recognition.
- Up 127% in 12 months at a 99th-percentile valuation; the multiple now requires zero customer push-outs and continuous High-NA adoption, both of which have multi-year option value rather than confirmed timing.
ASML Holding revenue and capex
In fiscal 2025, ASML Holding reported revenue of $35.3B, capital spending of $1.7B and operating income of $12.2B.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Capex | Operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $35.3B | $1.7B | $12.2B |
| 2024 | $30.5B | $2.2B | $9.7B |
| 2023 | $29.8B | $2.3B | $9.8B |